August 22, 2020 / By mobanmarket
Former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE is poised for a big night according to allies and advisers, who expect him to emerge with a huge delegate lead after a half-dozen states vote in the Democratic primary on Tuesday night.
Biden is widely expected to win Mississippi and Missouri, where a big edge with African American voters has him set up to take a big lead over Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.).
He’s also now the favorite, according to the FiveThirtyEight website, in the other four states holding contests — including Michigan, the most high-profile battleground.
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“No one wants to say this out loud, but I think it’s going to be a very good night for us,” said one major Democratic donor who supports Biden.
“I’d go as far as saying we can take our brooms out tonight,” the donor quipped. “But no one wants to be so presumptuous.”
Sanders won Michigan in the 2016 primary, as well as North Dakota, Washington and Idaho, which also hold contests on Tuesday.
But FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver on Tuesday morning rated Biden as the favorite in all six contests.
“Sanders has to hope that the polls are quite wrong,” Silver wrote on Twitter. “They show Biden with a narrow lead in Washington, a medium-sized lead in Idaho, and a big lead everywhere else.”
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Even if he doesn’t sweep all six states, one longtime aide said, Tuesday night’s results will help seal the deal for Biden, particularly if he wins Michigan, Missouri and Mississippi.
“[I’d be] shocked if we sweep, but I think we win the three M’s handily which would be fatal for Sanders,” the aide said of the three states.
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In the lead-up to primary night, polls seem to be trending in Biden’s favor.
In Michigan, a state where Sanders pulled out a surprising win in 2016 against Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE, a string of recent polls show Biden trouncing Sanders. On Monday, a Monmouth University poll showed Biden beating Sanders 51 percent to 36 percent.
Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said Biden “appears to have the advantage because he is doing well among some groups that Sanders won four years ago.”
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At the same time, Patrick warned that “Michigan can defy expectations,” as was the case when Sanders won the state even as he trailed in the state’s polls in 2016 against Clinton, a former secretary of State.
Still, the Monmouth survey came on the heels of a Detroit Free Press poll which showed Biden leading Sanders 51 percent to 27 percent.
Sanders allies say it’s about delegate counts and not wins in the overall states. “That’s what matters at the end of the day,” said one longtime Sanders confidant.
Still, they acknowledge they have a lot riding on Michigan, which will hand out 125 delegates.
Biden currently leads the delegate count 670 to 574, after winning 10 out of 14 states on Super Tuesday. Rep. Tulsi GabbardTulsi GabbardGabbard drops defamation lawsuit against Clinton It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process 125 lawmakers urge Trump administration to support National Guard troops amid pandemic MORE (D-Hawaii) is also still in the Democratic contest despite only winning two delegates.
A CNN poll on Monday showed Biden with a double-digit lead over Sanders nationally. The survey showed Biden leading Sanders 52 percent to 36 percent among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters.
Biden also received endorsements from Sens. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.) and Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants Black lawmakers unveil bill to remove Confederate statues from Capitol Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-N.J.) on Monday, a week after other former candidates including Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., and Sen. Amy KlobucharAmy KlobucharHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Democrats demand Republican leaders examine election challenges after Georgia voting chaos Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk MORE (D-Minn.) got behind his campaign.
Biden allies say more than anything, they have momentum on their side.
“I didn’t think I’d be saying this a month ago, or even a week ago, but I think we’re going to win this,” one ally said.
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