October 23, 2020 / By mobanmarket
In 2012, President Obama beat Republican nominee Mitt Romney by more than 6.3 million votes in the nation’s 25 largest counties, a margin greater than the 5 million votes by which Obama beat Romney nationally.
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Four years later, Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE beat Republican Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in those same counties by just shy of 8 million votes — and lost the electoral college, thanks in large part to Trump’s strong performance in smaller exurban and rural counties.
The results illustrate the Democratic Party’s reliance on an urban core of white liberals, minorities and younger voters, and the growing political gap between those urban cores and suburban, exurban and rural areas. The voting blocs on which Democrats relied in November are necessary, but clearly not sufficient, to win the White House.
Trump’s victory was propelled, the election results show, by a surge of support in smaller counties, places Obama ran close to Romney but where Clinton lagged badly behind Trump. The Clinton campaign actually succeeded in boosting turnout in many of the largest counties in the nation, but it wasn’t enough to offset losses in smaller, more rural areas.
In the swing state of Florida, Clinton bested Obama’s 2012 performance by more than 100,000 votes in the five counties with more than a million residents. But Trump received 300,000 more votes than Romney did in 2012 in counties with populations between 100,000 and 1 million, and about 50,000 more votes in counties with fewer than 100,000 residents.
Many of the counties where Clinton improved on Obama’s performance came in states that were not considered competitive in November. In California, a state solidly in the Democratic column, Clinton received 8.7 million votes — nearly a million more than Obama received four years ago.
As states finalize and certify results from November’s elections, Clinton leads Trump by 2.6 million votes nationally. But Trump won states that add up to 306 electoral votes, 36 more than he needed to win the presidency.
Clinton won more than 100,000 more votes than Obama did in six counties across the country. She beat Trump by 2.8 million votes in Los Angeles and Cook County, Ill., a margin greater than her national share.
And Clinton improved on Obama’s performance in 19 of the nation’s 25 largest counties. In those counties, Clinton took 1.6 million more votes than Obama did four years ago. The vast majority of those counties are not located in swing states.
But the counties where Clinton lagged behind Obama’s 2012 performance tell the story of her defeat. Of the six mega-counties where Clinton’s margin over Trump was lower than Obama’s margin over Romney, three — Clark County, Nev.; Wayne County, Mich.; and Philadelphia County, Pa. — were in battleground states.
Wayne County, home of Detroit, is the prime example of Clinton’s downfall. In 2016, Clinton took 517,000 votes, 78,000 fewer than Obama won in 2012. Michigan election officials are conducting a recount of last month’s vote, but initially certified results showed Trump beat Clinton by fewer than 11,000 votes statewide.
Clinton underperformed Obama in Oakland and Macomb Counties, Mich., too. She fell short of the Democratic performance in Milwaukee County, Wis., and Hamilton and Cuyahoga Counties in Ohio.
Still, the results show Democrats making inroads in some larger counties where they had struggled in earlier elections. Clinton became the first Democrat in generations to win Orange County, Calif., the wealthy, formerly conservative enclave south of Los Angeles. Clinton won Salt Lake County, Utah, with the help of independent candidate Evan McMullin, taking 30,000 more votes than Obama did four years ago.
And Clinton came within 45,000 votes of winning Maricopa County, the largest county in Arizona. In 2012, Obama lost to Romney by 148,000 votes in the Phoenix-based county.
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